The prologue introduces a pivotal moment in early 20th century geopolitics involving Winston Churchill. Initially, Churchill, as Home Secretary, opposed increased military spending, advocating instead for domestic social programs. However, when Kaiser Wilhelm of Germany sent a naval vessel called the Panther to Agadir, Morocco in July 1911, Churchill’s perspective shifted dramatically. The German move was intended to challenge French influence and assert Germany’s presence, igniting a severe international crisis that brought Europe to the brink of war. The event convinced Churchill of Germany’s aggressive intentions, leading him to conclude that war was inevitable.

Shortly afterward, Churchill was appointed First Lord of the Admiralty and dedicated himself to preparing Britain for military conflict. One crucial decision he faced was whether to convert the Royal Navy from coal to oil, a shift fraught with strategic risks due to the inevitability of relying on foreign oil supplies. Despite opposition to this plan, Churchill recognized the significant advantages in speed and efficiency and ultimately decided that Britain’s naval supremacy must be based on oil. This decision underscored the broader reality that oil was becoming the cornerstone of geopolitical power.

Yergin draws a parallel between Churchill’s era and the situation in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, aiming to control its vast oil reserves.